Seattle Mariners 2024 Over/Under Regular Season Win Total

The Seattle Mariners hope to return to the postseason after missing the playoffs last season. We’re here to share our MLB odds series and make a Mariners over-under regular-season win total prediction and pick for the 2024 season.

The Mariners went 88-74 last season, finishing third in the American League West. Unfortunately, a poor start doomed any changes of the Mariners covering the spread or making the postseason. They ended up missing the playoffs after making it in the previous season. However, there were some highlights to look at.

Julio Rodriguez finished with a batting average of .275 with 32 home runs, 103 RBIs, and 102 runs while also stealing 37 bases. Meanwhile, catcher Cal Raleigh finished with a batting average of .266 with 30 home runs, 75 RBIs, and 78 runs. Their rotation was exceptional. First, George Kirby went 13-10 with a 3.35 ERA. Kirby kept hitters off balance with great pitchers interchanging. Additionally, Logan Gilbert went 13-7 with a 3.73 ERA. Gilbert won games with a nice mix of pitches and a new splitter. Also, Luis Castillo finished 14-9 with a 3.34 ERA. Castillo dominated hitters with an elite fastball.

The Mariners will have some new additions. Mitch Garver comes to the Mariners via free agency from the Texas Rangers. Likewise, they acquired Luis Urias via a trade with the Boston Red Sox. They also added outfielder Mitch Haniger. Lastly, they acquired starting pitcher Anthony DeSclafani in a trade with the San Francisco Giants. The Mariners opted to trade Jarred Kelenic away to the Atlanta Braves.

Here are the Win Total MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

MLB Odds: Mariners 2024 Win Total Odds

Over 87.5 Wins: -108

Under 87.5 Wins: -112

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Why The Mariners Will Win 87.5 Games

The Mariners have one of the best rotations in the game. Kirby, Castillo, and Gilbert are all top-quality pitchers that can net the Mariners victories any day. Therefore, that 1-3 advantage helps keep the M’s in games on most days. But the Mariners may also have a nice fourth option in Bryce Miller to rely on. Miller went 8-7 with a 4.32 ERA last season. Yet, there is so much room to improve. Miller throws a mid-90s fastball and a cutter/slider combo that is lethal to opposing hitters. Additionally, the Mariners hope that DeSclafani can fully recover from his elbow issues. If he can, then the Mariners have an amazing fifth-starting pitcher. DeSclafani went 13-7 with a 3.17 ERA in his last healthy season in 2021. If that does not work out, the M’s have a good backup option in Bryan Woo.

The offense has three weapons. Rodriguez is a 30/30 player who will likely take it to the next level in his third season. Then Raleigh will also be exceptional behind the plate and at the plate. You cannot forget about J.P. Crawford, who finished with a batting average of .266 with 19 home runs, 65 RBIs, and 94 runs last season with an on-base percentage of .380.

The bullpen does not have much going for it. However, Matt Brash is a shining point. His slider is amazing, and he can deceive hitters with its movement.

The Mariners will win 88 games because of their elite rotation. Additionally, they will hit enough to help them win games.

Why The Mariners Won’t Win 87.5 Games

Andres Munoz is always hurt. How in the world is he going to close games? Trading away Paul Sewald was a mistake. Even more, the rest of the bullpen has so many questions. Just imagine the Mariners taking a 2-1 lead into the seventh inning, only for one of the relievers to allow a two-run home run, ruining a great outing from Castillo, Gilbert, and Kirby. While the Mariners only had 20 blown saves last season, there are more questions about this bullpen this season.

The offense is mediocre. Rodriguez, Raleigh, and Crawford can only do so much. Sadly, Ty France struggled last season, finishing with a batting average of .250, 12 home runs, 58 RBIs, and 79 runs. Second-baseman Josh Rojas has a low hard hit rate. Meanwhile, Luis Urias saw his production decline in Milwaukee. The Mariners do not even have a designated hitter. Taylor Trammell will likely fill the role. However, he finished with a batting average of .168.

The Mariners will not win 88 games because their hitting is below average, and their bullpen is filled with questions.

Final Mariners Over/Under Win Total Prediction

It is easy to be negative about the Mariners after last season. Despite what they did last season, you need to consider that the Mariners will have another full year of experience. The Mariners also play in the same division as the Los Angeles Angels and Oakland Athletics. They combined to go 20-6 against both teams last season. Somehow, they went 4-9 against the Texas Rangers and 9-4 against the Houston Astros. If the M’s can find some more balance within their division, they can snag a few more wins. In the end, they have an amazing rotation, and their lineup will be better. Expect Seattle to win 90 games.

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Final Mariners Over/Under Win Total Prediction: Over 87.5 Wins: -108