NBA playoff bets: Thunder vs. Pelicans Game 3 prediction, odds, pick 4/27

Thunder vs. Pelicans Odds

Saturday, April 27, 3:30 p.m., TNT

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Oklahoma City Thunder

The folks who thought the Thunder's regular season success wouldn't translate have looked pretty dumb.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is shooting 61% on pull-up shots in this series. He's been the same guy he was in the regular season: an MVP candidate.

Chet Holmgren has defended the most shots at the rim of any player in the playoffs and is allowing just a 41% FG% on those shots via NBA.com's admittedly wonky tracking data.

OKC has been sharper and tougher; they have put the game where they want it. They have out-ran the big units, with a 34-13 ([) advantage in fast-break points. They have defended the rim better and shot more shots at the rim. The Pelicans don't have any real edge so far.

What will be interesting in this game is if the Thunder are just better as we've seen with the Wolves and Nuggets on the road, or if some of their advantages in terms of effort and efficiency dip in this one.

The Thunder's bench unit has been lights out, but on the road, there's a good chance those players start to struggle and that has to be the Pelican's hope.

OKC's been better from start to finish. Their starters have been awesome; their bench has been even better. The Thunder have a +31.6 net rating when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is averaging 31-5-5 in this series.

Maybe the most concerning thing for the Thunder is that things have gone so well it's impossible for OKC to really implement any major adjustments which means if the Pelicans completely adjust, it could shock them.

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New Orleans Pelicans

Here's the brightest spot for the Pelicans: they can't shoot worse.

The Pelicans have generated the most corner three-point attempts per game of any team in the playoffs so far, 13 per game. Those are the highest-value 3-point shots you can create. They have shot 19% — NINETEEN — on those attempts. I'm not kidding when I say it is almost impossible for them to shoot worse than that at home.

The Pelicans are losing the three-point battle by three threes per game. They are also generating the third-lowest shots at the rim of any team in the playoffs. This is not a screed about how you need to Moreyball the game, but you do need to understand that the Thunder are built to do exactly that. They want threes, dunks, and free throws.

The absence of Zion Williamson absolutely makes it difficult for the Pelicans to a.) attack the rim and b.) force the defense to collapse to open up threes. But this is the hand New Orleans has been dealt.

The upside is that the first two games have largely come down to shot variance. The Thunder shot the lights out, and the Pelicans couldn't hit water if they fell out of a boat.

In this series, the Thunder have shot 40% from 3-point range on pull-ups, while the Pelicans have shot 13% on the same volume. That's not the whole series, but it's a lot of it.

Jonas Valanciunas should be able to beast inside, but that's not how the Pelicans play. Instead, they are caught trying to keep up with a faster team that shoots better.

Making shots will help, but the Thunder have a 112 offensive rating off Pelicans made shots. Compare that to the Pelicans who are averaging 98.3 off Thunder made shots.

So, just making shots isn't going to help if the Pelicans can't do something to improve their defensive results. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is 9-of-10 with CJ McCollum defending him, Jalen Williams is 5-of-6. They have to hide him more effectively. They've tried with putting him on Lu Dort, but the Thunder just put him in positions to wind up on Shai anyway.

Much of what makes this series tough to cap is trying to predict what Willie Green will do. He's had good moments but every time he faces a problem that he needs to solve whether it's injuries or scheme, he struggles. He's only really strong at setting a baseline.

Thunder vs. Pelicans

Betting Pick & Prediction

The Pelicans have taken a lot of sharp action (15 sharp moves in our Action App pro functions) and the under has seen 12 moves. The total has gone from 211.5 to 209.5, while the Thunder have gone to -1.5 from -1 due to public money on them.

With the shot variance and sharp action, Pelicans ML has value. But I'm not sold that the Pelicans have the mental makeup to respond in this game. If the shots don't fall, are they going to battle?

The under, though, is really interesting. The Pelicans can shoot better in this one and go over their team total (and likely win the game). But OKC's offense hasn't been spectacular. With SGA on the floor, despite his 31-5-5 line, the Thunder only have a 112 offensive rating even with all the pull-up variance.

The Pelicans can win by making shots and the Thunder variance cooling down. The Thunder can win by just locking down defensively even if the shots don't fall that much. So I'll play the Thunder team total under here.

Pick: Thunder Team Total Under 105.5 (-110)